Croatia Faces Montenegro in Final Qualifier as Vatreni Seal World Cup Spot
On Monday, November 17, 2025, at 19:45 UTC, Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica will host the final World Cup 2026 European Qualification Group I clash between Montenegro and Croatia — a game with no stakes for qualification, but plenty for pride. For Croatia, led by head coach Zlatko Dalić, it’s a chance to cap off a near-perfect campaign. For Montenegro, under Mirko Vučinić, it’s a last chance to salvage dignity after a campaign that collapsed faster than a house of cards in a windstorm.
Montenegro’s Qualification Nightmare
It’s hard to believe this is the same Montenegro team that started Group I with two wins in 2024. After beating Gibraltar 2-1 on November 14, they’ve now lost four straight — including a 4-0 drubbing at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb last September. Their goal difference? Minus eight. Six goals scored. Fourteen conceded. That’s not bad luck — that’s a systemic failure.
Even their home form, once a bright spot, feels hollow. Two wins in three home qualifiers? Sure. But they’ve also lost to the Faroe Islands 0-4 away, a result that buried any slim hopes of advancement. They’re fourth in the group, six points behind Czechia, and mathematically locked in that spot. No promotion. No playoff shot. Just a farewell tour.
Croatia: Unstoppable, Unfazed
Meanwhile, Croatia have been the model of consistency. Six wins, one draw from seven matches. Unbeaten in nine of their last ten competitive games. They’ve already qualified — and they’ve done it with flair: averaging 3.0 goals per game, 59% possession, and 7.9 corners per match. Their defense? Solid. Only 1.0 goal conceded per game on average.
Zlatko Dalić has the luxury of resting stars like Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić, but he’s not treating this as a friendly. The Vatreni are still hungry. They beat the Faroe Islands 3-1 last week, and Nikola Vlašić — the Torino midfielder — looks set to start after scoring off the bench. He’s the kind of player who can turn a routine win into a statement.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Look at the stats: Montenegro have conceded in the first half in their last five games. Croatia have scored before halftime in six of their last seven qualifiers. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a pattern. And in their only previous competitive meeting, Croatia won 4-0. No fluke. No lucky bounce. A demolition.
Montenegro’s home record? They’ve seen over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 games at Podgorica. They’ve averaged 4.6 corners per match. They’re desperate to put on a show for their fans — even if it’s just to prove they’re not a complete joke. But their attack? Averaging just 0.9 goals per game. Their best hope? Nikola Krstović, the Atalanta signing who’s shown flashes of brilliance. He’s the only one who might give Croatia’s defense a moment’s pause.
Betting Lines and What They Reveal
The market doesn’t think this is close. Odds for Croatia to win sit at 31/100 (1.31) on 10bet. The most popular prediction? Croatia 1-0 or 1-2. SportsMole.co.uk forecasts a 0-3 rout. FootballPredictions.net says both teams will score — a rare glimmer of hope for Montenegro fans. But even that’s a stretch. Croatia haven’t conceded in their last three away qualifiers.
One value bet? Montenegro +1.5 Asian Handicap at -108. It’s not about them winning — it’s about not getting crushed. If they hold Croatia to a one-goal win, bettors still cash in. That’s the reality: even in defeat, Montenegro might not lose by more than one.
What’s at Stake? Nothing — and Everything
For Croatia, this is about legacy. Dalić’s side is aging. Modrić, 39, could be playing his last World Cup qualifier. This match is a chance to send the generation out with a clean slate — no slip-ups, no distractions. For Montenegro, it’s about identity. They’ve been stuck in football purgatory for over a decade. They’ve had moments — a draw with Spain in 2019, a win over Serbia in 2022 — but never consistency. This team needs a spark. A win here, even a narrow one, could be the foundation for a rebuild.
But don’t expect fireworks. The atmosphere in Podgorica will be subdued. No one believes in this Montenegro side anymore. And Croatia? They’re too professional to let pride become complacency. They’ll win. But they won’t celebrate. Not like they used to.
What’s Next?
After this match, both teams turn their focus to the 2026 World Cup. Croatia will prepare for a tough group likely including Brazil, Japan, or Canada. Montenegro? They’ll begin a long, painful cycle of youth development. Vučinić’s future is uncertain. The federation may look to bring in a foreign coach — someone who’s won at this level before.
Historical Context: A Rivalry in Shadows
This is only the second competitive meeting between these two. The first, in September 2025, was a 4-0 Croatian win — a result that still haunts Montenegrin fans. There’s no deep history here, no bitter feud like Serbia vs. Croatia. Just a small nation trying to catch up to a regional giant that’s been on the world stage for decades.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Montenegro still qualify for the World Cup?
No. Montenegro is mathematically eliminated. With only nine points and a goal difference of -8, they cannot catch the Czech Republic or even the Faroe Islands, who finished with a +2 goal difference. Even a win over Croatia won’t change their standing — they’re locked in fourth place with no path to the playoffs.
Why is Croatia still playing seriously if they’ve already qualified?
Croatia’s coaching staff sees this as a chance to evaluate squad depth and test younger players like Nikola Vlašić ahead of the World Cup. They’ve maintained a winning mentality throughout qualifying, and Dalić won’t risk losing momentum — especially with key veterans nearing retirement. A win here keeps their unbeaten run alive and boosts confidence.
Who are the key players to watch in this match?
For Croatia, Nikola Vlašić is likely to start and could be the difference-maker. For Montenegro, Nikola Krstović — their Atalanta striker — is their most dangerous attacker, though he’s been isolated in recent games. On defense, Croatia’s Josko Gvardiol will be crucial in containing any counterattacks, while Montenegro’s goalkeeper Predrag Rajković will be under constant pressure.
Is this match likely to have over 2.5 goals?
Yes. Montenegro have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six matches, and Croatia have done so in five of their last seven. Even if Croatia win 1-0, their tendency to dominate possession and force chances makes a higher-scoring game likely. Bookmakers are offering over 2.5 goals at favorable odds, reflecting this trend.
What does this result mean for Montenegro’s future?
This campaign has exposed serious gaps in talent and structure. Montenegro’s national team has relied on aging players and inconsistent club performances. A rebuild is inevitable — likely centered on youth development and foreign coaching expertise. The federation may look to hire a coach with World Cup experience to guide the next generation through the 2028 Euro qualifiers.
How does Croatia’s performance compare to their 2018 World Cup run?
Croatia’s qualifying form in 2025 is even more dominant than in 2018, when they won six of eight qualifiers. This time, they’ve lost only one game in 10 matches, scored more goals per game, and maintained higher possession. While the 2018 team had more star power, this squad shows greater tactical discipline — a sign that Dalić’s system has matured beyond reliance on Modrić alone.
Orlaith Ryan
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